Summary:
10Y+ since the iPhone, stagnant smartphone market (0% Y/Y), with 5x underlying dynamics:
- Cheapest ASP in a decade for new shipments (50% down to $300)
- 40% market share dominated by Chinese OEMs
- 3.3 daily hours (10% Y/Y), with expanding messaging use (60%+ not deduped)
- 36% of payments are mobile; Commerce is soaring (30%+ GMV)
- Underrepresented Mobile Advertising opportunity (7Bn+)
Find takeaways of this year’s KPCB annual report below, and a link to the full presentation. Adapted from Mary Meeker’s annual conference
Takeaways:
User Growth:
- Harder to find growth after 50% adoption (200M new users added in 2018 / 7% growth),
- Smartphone saturation 0% Y/Y flat at 1.5B (growing share of China OEMs to 40%)
- Solid usage (5.9 hours per day / 4% Y/Y)
Commerce:
- Soaring growth in Online stores (35%+ Y/Y) for a massive business (800k / $25B+ GMV)
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Continued concentration in Amazon’s hands (currently at 28% of Global GMV or $129B)
- More additional functionality, with a strong ecosystem of start-ups: update; local; fraud (Signifyd); financing (Affirm); customer support (Intercom); custom savings; view and share; pay seamlessly
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49% discovery starts at Amazon (49% of Searches). Others channels raising (15% today) within Facebook assets (Facebook/Instagram)
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Material value for consumers: prices down 3%: online shopping efficiencies; selection and convenience
Ads:
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Massive digital advertising industry ($90Bn revenues)
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Solid growth: 21% Y/Y
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Mobile still underrepresented (7Bn)
Data:
- Largest spending increase for CIOs on AI
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Dataset sizes continue to drive better performance / improves predictive ability of many services
